Michael Leidl

Vienna

Michael Leidl

Building better solutions. Passionate about pushing performance & the role of AI in the future of finance.

Milliman | TU Wien

„Schätzen ist Schaffen: Schätzen selber ist aller Dinge Schatz und Kleinod. Durch das Schätzen erst gibt es Wert.“

“To value is to create: valuing itself is the treasure and jewel of all things. Only through estimation does value come into being.” Schätzen means both to estimate and to value; a duality English cannot fully capture.

MillimanAllianzKPMGErste GroupZürichUniqaTU Wien

Brain Teasers

At eleven, a classmate and I invented a game. Roll a die as often as you like, when you stop you get to keep the running total, but a 1 wipes you out and you get 0. Stopping at ten felt too early, thirty felt too late. We settled around twenty.

Thirteen years later my bachelor's thesis gave that intuition its answer.

Curriculum Vitae

Work

2026–

Consultant · Milliman, Vienna

Financial & Actuarial Services. Professional experience with generative AI agents to automate work and push methodologies and quality.

2024–26

Junior Actuary, P&C · Allianz Austria

P&C reserving models: methodology, machine learning, the move off Excel into Python. Management reporting in Power BI.

2023

Associate, Financial & Actuarial Mathematics · KPMG Austria

2022

Intern, Major Markets & Credit Research · Erste Group Bank

2021

Intern · Zürich Versicherung, Uniqa

2020

Summer jobs · waiter at a chalet, archaeological excavations, energy infrastructure

Extracurricular activities

Since 2023

Actuarial Association of Austria · member, certification in progress

2015–26

Math & Science Tutor · Bildungsmanufaktur Österreich

Active

TU Wien Top Fellows

Former

Business & Finance Club Vienna · incl. the FFM IB-Tour 2024

Education

2022–24

MSc Financial & Actuarial Mathematics · TU Wien

Grade average 1.3. Actuarial modelling and statistical methods.

2018–22

BSc Financial & Actuarial Mathematics · TU Wien

Grade average 2.0. Financial mathematics and risk management. Foundation Scholarships.

2012–17

Mechatronics · HTL Eisenstadt

Grade average 1.7. Automation technology. Class representative.

2008–12

Gymnasium Oberpullendorf · Burgenland

Burgenland-wide winner, Känguru der Mathematik.

Research

Three papers from my studies, all on optimal strategic stopping.

2024

A Singularly Perturbed Two-Dimensional Ruin Problem Page

MSc thesis, supervised by Peter Grandits. Ruin probability for a two-dimensional Brownian motion with controllable drift.

2021

An Unsolved Stopping Problem in Discrete Time Page

BSc thesis, supervised by Maike Klein. On a proof by Chow and Robbins from 1965.

2020

The 1/e-Strategy Is Not Optimal for the Best-Choice Problem Under No Information Page

Seminar paper, supervised by Stefan Gerhold. A 36-year-old open question about choosing the best candidate out of an unknown pool.

Perspective

Deciding is the hard part.

Collecting information is easy and it feels like progress. The hard, bold move is to choose and give something up. So I argue against what I believe before I commit, and then I commit and move forward.

The bigger picture.

Wanting to understand things properly took me into the mathematics of decision making. It was the sharpest instrument I could find for the question underneath, and that question has since moved me past it, to technology, the economy, and how people actually behave.

Pressure sharpens.

A football penalty shootout, a volleyball tournament final, the army. Situations that call for focus and taught me to thrive in high-pressure situations.

Discipline and curiosity.

Two instincts run against each other in most of the work I care about. Discipline does the same hard thing until it stops being hard. Curiosity drops what you know the moment something better shows up. Knowing which one the moment asks for is the skill.

Where the interesting work is.

That is what pulled me toward behavioural finance, the field built around the gap between how people are supposed to behave and how they do. A reserving model assumes the textbook. The interesting work starts where that assumption breaks.

Be available, be responsive.

Sometimes, a human touch is all it takes. Answer the message. Send the follow-up. Keep the ego out of it. In the long run, people can tell whether you genuinely care.

Quotes

„Talent is a pursued interest. In other words: Anything that you're willing to practice, you can do.“

„Verstehe die Interessen deines Gegenüber.“

Understand your counterpart's interests.

„Ein Mensch zu sein heißt, damit beschäftigt zu sein, die Frage zu beantworten, was es heißt, Mensch zu sein.“

To be human is to spend your life answering what it means to be human.

„Die Hoffnung ist der Regenbogen über dem herabstürzenden Bach des Lebens.“

Hope is the rainbow over life's rushing waters.

„Überzeugungen sind oft die gefährlichsten Feinde der Wahrheit.“

Convictions are often the most dangerous enemies of truth.

„Man kann nicht immer ein Held sein, aber man kann immer ein Mann sein.“

You cannot always be a hero, but you can always be a man.

„Durch nichts bezeichnen die Menschen mehr ihren Charakter als durch das, was sie lächerlich finden.“

Nothing reveals a person's character more than what they find ridiculous.

„Nicht denken, zu wissen, sondern wissen, was man denkt.“

Not thinking that you know, but knowing what you think.

„Man wächst mit seinen Aufgaben.“

You grow into what you take on.

„Mit dem Wissen wächst der Zweifel.“

Doubt grows with knowledge.

„Man kann die Erfahrung nicht früh genug machen, wie entbehrlich man in der Welt ist.“

You cannot learn early enough how easily the world does without you.

„Der Undank ist immer eine Art Schwäche. Ich habe nie gesehen, dass tüchtige Menschen undankbar gewesen wären.“

Ingratitude is always a form of weakness. I have never known a capable person to be ungrateful.

„Was man nicht aufgibt, hat man nie verloren.“

What you never give up, you have never lost.

„Wer kämpft, kann verlieren. Wer nicht kämpft, hat schon verloren.“

Fight and you may lose. Do not fight and you have lost already.

„Reden über Angelegenheiten, die durch Reden nicht entschieden werden können, muss man sich abgewöhnen.“

Get out of the habit of talking about things that talking cannot settle.

„Kein Vormarsch ist so schwer wie der zurück zur Vernunft.“

No advance is as hard as the one back to reason.

„Alle Hindernisse und Schwierigkeiten sind Stufen, auf denen wir in die Höhe steigen.“

Obstacles and difficulties are the steps we climb on.

„Es ist ein Zeichen von Ernsthaftigkeit, das Schwere im Leben so leicht wie möglich zu nehmen.“

It is a sign of seriousness to take what is heavy in life as lightly as you can.

„Führen heißt, voranzugehen und sich sicher zu sein, dass andere folgen.“

To lead is to go first and be certain that others follow.

„Mut ist, sich durch eigene Ängste nicht einschüchtern zu lassen.“

Courage is refusing to be intimidated by your own fears.

„Die Gier ist der unbändige Hunger des Satten, der sich selbst nicht spürt.“

Greed is the boundless hunger of the sated, who have lost all feeling for themselves.

„Ein Arbeitsklima ohne Humor ist lächerlich.“

A workplace without humour is ridiculous.

„Marktwirtschaft heißt schöpferische Zerstörung.“

A market economy means creative destruction.

„Konkurrenz belebt letztendlich nur den, der sie überlebt.“

In the end competition only invigorates those who survive it.

„Die Kunst des Führens ist die Kunst des Kommunizierens.“

The art of leading is the art of communicating.

„Es ist eine Frage der Selbstdisziplin, sich nicht alles zu Herzen zu nehmen.“

Not taking everything to heart is a matter of self-discipline.

„Hören Sie auf zu arbeiten, seien Sie einfach tätig.“

Stop working. Just be active.

„Informieren ist erfolgreicher, wenn es mit Zuhören kombiniert ist.“

Informing works better when it comes with listening.

„Menschen, die sich nichts zumuten, sind für andere eine Zumutung.“

People who demand nothing of themselves become a demand on everyone else.

„Unbewältigtes führt gewöhnlich zu Altem in neuem Outfit.“

What goes unresolved usually comes back in a new outfit.

„Schätzen ist Schaffen: Schätzen selber ist aller Dinge Schatz und Kleinod. Durch das Schätzen erst gibt es Wert.“

To value is to create: valuing itself is the treasure and jewel of all things. Only through estimation does value come into being.

„Wer Berge zu versetzen hat, der versetzt auch Täler und Niederungen.“

Whoever has mountains to move also moves the valleys and the lowlands.

„Unerschöpft und unentdeckt ist immer noch Mensch und Menschen-Erde.“

Humankind and the human earth are still unexhausted and undiscovered.

“So oft gsiachst Leid, die Werkzeug und Schrauben am Boden liegen lassen. Und dann miassns die ganze Zeit auf da Baustöh sich bücken und unnedig plagen. Sei ka Trottl und richt da an Arbeitsplatz ein.”

“You see it all the time. People leave their tools and screws lying on the ground, then spend the whole day on site bending down, wearing themselves out for nothing. Don't be a fool. Set your workspace up properly.”

My father

Hard years on construction sites gave him his principles, and he taught them to us. It is still the best one-line argument for process design I know.

„Die Grenze des Opfers ist die Grenze der Polizei.“

“The limits of the victim are the limits of the police.”

My sister, legal counsel for the police

Knowing our rights and our options is necessary for all of us. The same holds for AI: the limits of domain expertise are the limits of what it can deliver, even when the answer looks like it goes further. More than ever you have to own the work, give it structure, and know where the knowledge ends on both sides.

Brain Teasers

Push Your Luck

Roll a fair six-sided die as many times as you like. Your payout is the running total. But the moment you roll a 1, the game ends and you walk away with nothing. When do you stop?

Show answer

At 20. From a total of S, one more roll gains an average of 4 with probability 5/6 and costs the whole of S with probability 1/6. The expected change is 56 · 4 − 16 · S = (20 − S) / 6, positive exactly while S < 20.

The Interview Problem

You interview candidates one at a time, in random order. After each one you decide immediately: hire or reject, no going back. What fraction should you reject up front, however good they look?

Show answer

The first ≈37%, or 1/e. Then hire the next one who beats everybody so far. Among all such rules this maximises the chance of ending up with the single best candidate, and 1/e is the optimal cutoff in the limit of many candidates.

Pocket Money & Neobrokers

In a school class, 80% get pocket money and 70% use a neobroker to trade. 5% have neither. What percentage has both?

Show answer

55%. At least one applies to 95% of the class. By inclusion-exclusion, both = 80% + 70% − 95% = 55%. The overlap is bigger than either group's gap.

The Ten-Minute Tram

Your tram runs every ten minutes on average. The gap between trams alternates between two fixed lengths. You arrive at random moments and measure your average wait: nine minutes. How is that possible?

Show answer

Because a random arrival usually lands in the long gap: the chance of landing in a gap is proportional to its length. Work it out and the two gaps are 10 − 4√5 ≈ 1 minute and 10 + 4√5 ≈ 19 minutes. The trams really do average ten minutes, and your expected wait is exactly nine.